In the years after the trust funds’ exhaustion, revenues would be insufficient to pay benefits specified in law, and the Social Security Administration would no longer be able to pay beneficiaries the full amounts to which they were entitled. Other projections in this report reflect a payable-benefits scenario. See section 257(b)(1) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, Public Law 99-177 (codified at 2 U.S.C. That approach is consistent with statutory requirements governing CBO’s baseline projections and reflects the assumption that funding for such programs will be adequate to make all payments required by law. Some projections in this report are based on a scheduled-benefits scenario in which Social Security continues to pay benefits as scheduled under current law, regardless of the status of the program’s trust funds. Through 2052, CBO’s projections incorporate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy after 2052, the projections do not account for such effects. The projections do not include budgetary or economic effects of subsequent legislation, economic developments, administrative actions, court rulings, or regulatory changes. They reflect economic developments through March 2, 2022, and also include the effects of legislation enacted through April 8, 2022. The projections in this report are based on CBO’s economic projections that were issued in May 2022. The Congressional Budget Office’s long-term projections for Social Security follow the agency’s 10-year baseline budget projections and then extend most of the concepts underlying those projections. After the trust funds’ exhaustion in the payable-benefits scenario, average retirement benefits in the first year of claiming resume their growth, but those benefits are smaller than scheduled benefits for people born after 1968 (that is, those who turn 65 after 2033). They would be 35 percent smaller by 2096, and the gap would remain stable thereafter. CBO projects that if Social Security outlays were limited to what is payable from annual revenues after the trust funds’ exhaustion in 2033, Social Security benefits would be about 23 percent smaller than scheduled benefits in 2034.
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